An Update on Ukraine

The Ukrainian crisis has not been in the press much lately, most likely due to the longevity of the issue and relative plateau of aggression and events occurring recently. Violence in the east of Ukraine has continued in the past months, still over a year after the crisis began. In order to fully understand and interpret the current state of Ukraine, we have to go back to the beginning.

In November of 2013, Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich abandoned a formerly promised agreement to closer trade ties with the European Union that would expand and improve the Ukrainian economy. Immediately following this withdrawal, thousands of Ukrainians gathered in protest in the capital of Kiev. These protests and demonstrations continued as Yanukovich made economic agreements with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The crisis became violent and deadly in January of 2014 as Yanukovich’s forces attacked protesters. In February of 2014, president Yanukovich disappeared (still yet to be seen) and Olexander Turchynov was elected as interim president. The Kremlin sent troops into eastern Ukraine and Crimea to help “keep peace” in March, and Crimea was eventually seized by Russia. In May of 2014, Petro Poroshenko was elected as Ukrainian president. Since then, Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces have been fighting in the East. In February of 2015, the Minsk II Agreement was signed between Putin and Poroshenko to promise a ceasefire in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Only in the past two weeks has this ceasefire been upheld in terms of heavy shelling, although both sides have claimed that shots have been fired.

Here is a timeline showing events in Ukraine in recent months, and here is an article from the New York Times showing Russia’s intentions in Ukraine since 2013.

This situation reminds me of the global 9-1-1 problem and Mearshimer’s idea in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics that great powers strive for hegemony. Russia’s advances into and actions in Ukrainian territory are difficult for other great powers to deal with and control. The lack of a global police force puts both Ukraine and great powers of the world at a disadvantage. Although the UN and EU have tried to facilitate agreement between the two countries, they cannot act in the way that a global police force would. This 9-1-1 problem also creates difficulties for great powers of the world because it makes it their responsibility to help countries like Ukraine in crises like this while still keeping their self-interest in mind. As a great power, Russia seems to be trying to become a regional hegemon. In a similar and even more literal way than Mearshimer describes, it seems that Russia wants to gain power and hegemony by taking complete control of Ukraine even after Soviet dissolution.