To Brexit or not to Brexit? – PLSC 359: Global Governance

On Thursday, June 23 there will be a referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Union or not. There is quite a bit of controversy on whether a “Brexit”, the nickname for the movement which combines the words Britain and Exit, will better or worsen the country’s current state.

Many in favor of leaving the European Union point to the fact that the UK is one of the 10 members who puts more money into the EU budget than it gets out, with only France and Germany contributing more. With the economic issues that Europe has been dealing with the last few years due to issues such as Greece and the influx of refugees, this is something many consider of utmost importance.

Many of those against the Brexit say that if they decide to leave, the free trade that EU members enjoy between themselves will be lost.

To counter this, the “Norwegian Model” is pointed out. This would mean leaving the EU, but joining the European Economic Area. This frees them from EU rules on agriculture, fisheries, justice, and home affairs. Although this may sound like “freedom” on paper, the EU will still impose their own regulations but Britain will have no influence over how the rules are made and will also have to pay in order to access the EU market.

No matter what the outcome this June is, the shortest period of time until the full transition out of the EU was completed would be at least two years. During the transition, it has come to agreement that Britain would have to abide by EU treaties and laws but will not be able to participate in any decision making.

As of now, the future of Britain and the EU is unsure, but will definitely be something to watch for this upcoming June.

Petra Formankova says:

April 21, 2016 at 11:30 am

The Brexit is a real current issue. I have just read an interesting article which was an analysis of the possible consequences of Brexit. Mostly, these articles concentrate on what would happened to the economy of Great Britain and the European Union, how would these two actors establish relations, most importantly in terms of trade, or how it would affect their status of power and influence in the international community. But this article made a really interesting point of what the leaving of European Union might also bring about.

First of all, the government might face problems at home again since not all parts of the United Kingdom are in favor of leaving the EU. Scotland would be the first to object and might start demanding independence again. When Scotland voted for independence in referendum in September 2014, the United Kingdom was still part of the EU, but now, as Scotland is significantly pro-european, the demand of independence could appear again. If Scotland succeeded and separated from Britain, it would be interesting how other parts such as Wales and Northern Ireland would react as they are also much more pro-european than English people.

The separation of Scotland would possibly have a significant effect on other separatist tendencies in Europe, for example in Spain, Belgium or Italy. And the exit of Britain itself could encourage other countries to leave the European Union. These chain reactions might actually mean the disintegration of the whole Europe. It will be really interesting to watch what will happen in June and after.

Sarah Iversen says:

April 29, 2016 at 8:27 pm

This a real concern right now in the UK and one that holds particular importance to myself. I will be attending graduate school in the UK next year and I am extremely curious to see how this “Brexit” plays out. Nevertheless, I am not too concerned about the outcome of the referendum. The British often have lamented their part in the EU, but have continually chosen to stay involved. I believe that the British will not vote to leave the EU due the complications that would arise from such a decision. While I do not doubt the frustrations the British are feeling towards the EU, especially right now with the refugee crisis and having to carry the weight of some economically lagging states, the international backlash they would face would counteract any of the positives. The Norwegian Model works for Norway because they never agreed to the terms in the first place. The UK already has rejected the Euro and has no real room to complain. The EU has brought more good for the UK than bad and I believe it would be an extremely poor choice on the part of the Britons to vote to leave. But hey, we live in a world where Trump is considered a viable candidate for president, so really anything can happen.