Patching the Hole

In a surprise move that actually doesn’t seem to have surprised that many people, House Speaker Paul Ryan has announced that following the 2018 Midterm Elections, he will be departing his post, supposedly to spend more time with his family and pursue other ventures. While this move has been rumored for some time now, it nonetheless sends the GOP reeling as they struggle to build confidence and voter enthusiasm in time for November’s vote. With Democratic activism in the midst of a surge and a GOP seemingly divided over the question of Trumpism, the Party will have to think hard about who would be a worthy successor to the one time poster boy for the group.

The most likely of the possible names that have been floated thus far are Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., both high ranking House members and prominent members of Paul Ryan’s inner circle. McCarthy seems the more likely choice at the moment as Scalise has said he will not oppose any attempt by McCarthy to take the position if he runs for it. McCarthy actually sought the position once in the past, (the same cycle that saw Paul Ryan elected), but dropped out of the running as the process neared its conclusion. Some alleged that he dropped out due to an emerging personal scandal, though McCarthy maintained it was because he felt the party needed younger blood at the forefront.

This is an issue that will be critical to the GOP in the upcoming cycle. Ryan himself was recently subjected to a T.V. interview in which the reporter pressed him on a photo of him with Trump’s inner circle that only included older white males. Some argue that the Republican Party is reaching the point where it can no longer depend solely on the white vote to elect their leaders, especially as a recent wave of Democratic victories has been helped largely by high women and minority turnouts.

Ultimately, what Ryan’s replacement will have to do is find a way to appeal to as many factions within the Party as possible. On the one side, Trump and his allies lead a more radical and conservative-minded branch of the Party, yet on the other, there is a group hungry for the GOP to adapt and hoping they can begin to collaborate with Democrats on policy once again, something that has become increasingly difficult in recent years. It is a non-enviable task, and many of the lesser contenders for the position have actually opted out for fear that the job will overwhelm them and drag their promising careers into the mud as some will argue it did with Ryan. There is also the chance that the question itself is irrelevant, for if the Democrats retake the House, they will appoint their own figure to head the assembly. Ultimately, these next few weeks will be critical for the GOP as they need to inspire voter confidence and figure out what it means to be a Republican in 2018.

4 Responses to "Patching the Hole"

Isabella Brown says:

April 15, 2018 at 8:27 pm

David,

You brought up interesting points regarding Paul Ryan’s announced retirement. Understandably, his job was difficult considering the divide you mentioned regarding the varying levels in the Republican party. However, I cannot imagine that this step away from politics will last very long. While it is a nice show to say that he wants to spend more time with his family, I believe that in reality he is probably figuring out the strategy for his next campaign. Not trying to sound too cynical about it, but it just seems so bizarre and unlikely that someone that has been in that position of power would just give it all up. My prediction is that we’ll be seeing Paul Ryan run for President in the future. We will have to wait and see what his next moves are, whether his retirement is permanent or this is just a short break away from politics.
Sara Milano says:

April 16, 2018 at 12:20 am

David,

I completely agree that the GOP is tasked with “finding out what it means to be a Republican in 2018.” The GOP has become the party of the old white male at the same time the empowerment and presence of women, minorities and youth in politics is becoming more apparent. It is likely the GOP will need an extremely charismatic and open candidate to successfully win future presidential elections. Many people, conservatives and liberals alike, admired Paul Ryan. He is a classically “good” republican, he presents fairly well and he follows orthodox conventions. However since the election of Donald Trump he has been seen as weak for his unwillingness to stand up to many of his poor economic policies and instances of bigotry. After Donald Trump proposed his Muslim ban, Paul Ryan did little to admonish him or voice a clear opinion on the issue. He was seen as not taking a strong enough stance and was added to a Wikipedia list of spineless animals as a joke. I think Ryan’s actions reflect the difficulties of the figurehead and mediator role that he plays. He cannot openly condemn the actions of the leader of his own party, but he has to salvage the reputation of it amidst Trump’s excessive spending and racist policies and comments. Overall, it is doubtful that he will retire from politics altogether. As others have noted, he will likely run for President later, but will probably face backlash for his inability to act as Speaker of the House.
Santiago Rivas says:

April 16, 2018 at 12:32 am

David,

very interest post, I really like the final question that you propose in your post, defining the roles and ideologies of the political parties is essential to determine the demographic that makes up their constituents. There is a point that you touch on that brings up a question that, might be somewhat far-fetched, but it would be interesting to see its development. This is the fact of the creation of more liberal factions within the Republican party. It seems to me that more and more people are aligning themselves with a more liberal way of thinking in today’s society, making these factions more appealing to voters. However, this makes me think that there might be a slight possibility of these groups actually breaking away from the traditional values of the Republican party, and even breaking from the party whatsoever, creating a new party that lies in between the ideologies of both American political parties, appealing to the median voter of the whole political spectrum, and breaking away from partisanship, and focusing in ideology. This idea might be somewhat unthinkable for most Americans, however seeing the transition from many states from a certain party to “swing states” this makes me think that maybe there is a new group of constituents that might be the basis for the founding of this new party. This idea might take very long time to develop, but it would break the mold of what American politics looks like, and could bring a more interesting political climate to the country.
Sophia Harrison says:

April 16, 2018 at 12:47 pm

David,
Thank you for your post. I think it is a really interesting conversation regarding Paul Ryan’s retirement from politics, as he is one of the top spokespeople for the Republican party. While many people are shocked and disheartened, at the end of the day, is it really that surprising? Within the Trump administration, four people have been fired and 17 people have resigned. Paul Ryan just happens to be another casualty. While each person has their own particular reason for leaving, I don’t think it is any secret that President Trump is a difficult person to work with and has at least some responsibility for driving people out. These numbers are overwhelmingly high and don’t reflect a positive light on our President. Even Hope Hicks, a longtime friend and colleague of the Trump family, decided to opt-out. It will be interesting to see whether or not these resignations have an impact on future elections.

Comments are closed.