The Demonstration of a Prospective Voting Model in the 2016 Election

Chapter 10: A Participatory Democracy

In the fight to determine what the government will do, each of the parties during the 2016 presidential election aimed to portray different perceptions on the issues that american voters face day-to-day. As a result, the United States two-party system exceedingly demonstrated the prospective voting model in the 2016 election. The prospective voting model is described in Chapter 10 as a theory of democratic elections in which voters decide what government will do in the near future by choosing one or another responsible party.

The election results identified Trump as the next republican president of the United States because the majority believed that his party would take a clear stance on the issues and enact them as policy once in office. The majority of voters did not want a continuance of the same government operations for the next 4-8 years, which is why they casted their ballots based on the political parties’ different visions. Trump supporters initially perceived that the republican party would become a responsible party when the advocated policies were implemented as the two-party system maintained unified and cohesive. However, as described below, Trump’s administration has faced many problems that political parties experience as they attempt to transition from a “prospective” to a “responsible” party.

The chart above displays results from a survey completed for ABC NEWS in November, 2017. The poll determined that just 35% of Americans approve of his job performance, which is the lowest of any president after being in office for only 9 months dating back to 1946. Along with the results demonstrated above, the poll determined 55% of the participants believe he is not enacting his major campaign promises, which happened to be up 14% since his 100-day mark in April, 2017. Since Trump gained office after a heated election, the lack of compromises with the losing party has only decreased his overall presidential approval rating and job performance.

Upholding the standards of a responsible party does not seem to be the case with the republican party since Trump gained popular control of the government in January, 2017. As demonstrated in the chart above created by an ABC NEWS survey, the level of expectations based on the concerns of the american people have only declined within the current administration’s first 9 months in office. For example, the biggest shortfall identified that 66% of 18- to 29-year-olds initially expected him to do an excellent or good job handling the economy and now only 34% believe that is taking place.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/year-surprise-election-65-percent-trumps-achieved-poll/story?id=50907926

Langley Crisp says:

March 28, 2018 at 9:41 pm

Samuel,

I appreciate your discussion on the prospective voting model. I completely agree with you that the 2016 Presidential election is a clear example of the prospective voting model at work. I believe, however, that this particular instance was complicated.

What I mean is that given the choice between now President Trump and Secretary Clinton, many people chose President Trump not necessarily because they were unhappy with the current administration. I strongly believe that, if the democratic party had nominated almost any reasonable Democrat, they would have won over President Trump. People were unhappy with Hillary Clinton’s past actions, such as Benghazi and the ongoing email scandal during the election. This is why they wanted an outsider – it was in comparison to her, not necessarily President Obama (although some may disagree with me).

President Trump got lucky with his opponent. She was someone that people didn’t like – not because she was a Democrat, but because of her as a person and the decisions she made. Donald Trump was elected because he was the lesser of two evils.

Maybe this explains his low approval ratings, which you mention above. He wasn’t chosen because of who he is – he was chosen because of who he is not. Now, he is having trouble delivering on his promises and we are all discovering the importance and responsibility Americans have as voters, as candidates, and the civil duty we owe to our nation.

Thanks again for your discussion on the prospective voting model.