Earlier this month, I spent a few hours in Charlottesville with 70 bankers from across Virginia. The topic of conversation was decision-making, especially ethical decision-making. For me, it was an educational morning. The participants were incredibly candid in their comments about how and why the industry reached its latest low. With just a bit of encouragement, many were willing to talk about organizational and competitive elements that contributed to risky choices again and again.
I thought of that conversation when I read the August 7 edition of The Economist, which includes a fantastic article entitled, “Confessions of a risk manager.” It would make an excellent opener in a course on ethics or finance.
The anonymous author writes, “The pressure on the risk department to approve transactions [in 2007] was immense,” echoing what I heard during my time with the bankers. Poor decision-making is likely when time is short and the potential for large financial gains exists. The possibility of downside risk is ignored or misjudged; trained professionals quit paying attention to crucial cues.
Ultimately, the author provides key lessons from the current crisis: (1) Don’t put too much trust in the rating agencies; (2) Bring back liquidity reserves; (3) Give risk departments more prominence, perhaps by encouraging more traders to become risk managers.
The first suggestion is central to discussions of overconfidence in decision-making. Know the value of the data that shapes your evaluation of possible choices or temper your confidence in the decision. The second suggestion is a more mechanical change that would help to create necessary constraints for some decision-makers. The final suggestion, as difficult as it might be to implement, would provide an important shift in perspective among risk managers and traders. Frames are not easily adjusted, but we have enough evidence now that the old way of seeing things included way too many blind spots.
