ESM Research

This just in, straight from the USGS:

Earthquake Fatalities High in 2008

The number of earthquake-related fatalities across the world in 2008 — about 88,070 according to the USGS and confirmed by the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs — was much higher in 2008 than in recent years. This past year’s strongest and most destructive earthquake occurred in eastern Sichuan, China, on May 12, claiming at least 69,185 lives. In the contiguous United States, 2008’s highest magnitude earthquake was a 6.0 on February 21 near Wells, Nev., causing no fatalities but injuring at least three people and severely damaging more than 20 buildings. The USGS and its partners in the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program are working to improve earthquake monitoring and reporting capabilities via the USGS Advanced National Seismic System. More information about ANSS can be found at earthquake.usgs.gov/research/monitoring/anss/, and a complete list of 2008 earthquake statistics can be found at neic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2008/. 

And now, barring any more global shaking, I’ll take a break from earthquakes and start blogging about other things, like weather. (Here in Richmond, we’re hoping NOAA is off on the precip. chance for today, and that we might actually get a flurry or two…)

I’d almost forgotten about the Great Southern California Shakeout (the earthquake drill that happened November 13, 2008) until the USGS very helpfully sent me a link to the “Corecast” for the “Lessons Learned” from the largest-ever earthquake scenario exercise.

(Download Secretary Kempthorne and Mark Myers Share Thoughts on ShakeOut.)

“Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne and USGS Director Mark Myers reflect on the successes of The Great Southern California ShakeOut—the largest earthquake preparedness drill in U.S. history.”

Perhaps the best overview of the outcomes is available on this page, from Caltech.  Scenario results, research studies and follow-on research are described and linked here.”Shakemaps”like the one below and scenario video are available here.

Finally, the innovative (and unexpected) collaboration with the Art Center College of Design resulted in the production of this YouTube video. Highly effective, without dropping into the realm of fear-mongering.

I’ve mentioned before that I find the most interesting things when I read more broadly outside of my field. Knowledge@Wharton, for instance, the online business journal of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. One of the articles in today’s issue is a summary of a Leadership Lecture given by Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff describing the role of the government in managing risk.

“What do the global financial crisis, Hurricane Katrina and the 9/11 terrorist attacks have in common? All are examples of how not to manage risk, according to America’s top risk-management official, Homeland security secretary Michael Chertoff.

Risk management “lies at the core” of his department’s mission, Chertoff said at a recent Wharton Leadership Lecture in which he addressed areas where regulation — in moderation — can reduce risk in the marketplace. Managing risk was the first objective he saw before him when he was sworn in almost four years ago, Chertoff said, and it remains “maybe the fundamental social problem that we face in the 21st century.”

“Our mission is very broad — it covers everything from preventing and reducing our vulnerability to terrorist attacks; to protecting and reducing the vulnerabilities of our infrastructure, including our cyber-infrastructure, and then mitigating the consequences of disasters by strengthening our preparedness and response.”

Looking back at the 9/11 attacks and various natural disasters during his soon-to-conclude tenure, “or even the current financial crisis, it becomes very clear that we have not always handled risk properly,” Chertoff acknowledged.”

The article itself is intersting, but I found the “Additional Reading” at the end of the article really interesting:

Hurricane Katrina: Important Policy Questions Amid the Devastation and Recovery
Knowledge@Wharton

A Month after Katrina: Lessons from Leadership Failures
Knowledge@Wharton

The Financial Risks of Terrorism: Balancing Public and Private Roles
Knowledge@Wharton

Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk
Knowledge@Wharton

An email subscription is free and open to anyone, at https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/signup.cfm.

Having seen actual snow falling as I was on my way in to work this morning (yes, in November, and yes, I live in Richmond!), I’m tempted to just link to the VDEM’s “Get Ready Now for Winter Weather” news release. But instead, I’m going to highlight a new Galveston National Laboratory, the University of Texas Medical Branch.

The arrival of Hurricane Ike in mid-September, just after the facility was “substantially” completed, was an early test of the safety of the structure, but there was no damage, and November 11, 2008 saw the official opening ceremony. Coming on the heels of a GAO report on the lack of security in several of the other BSL-4 laboratories, this was an important, if unanticipated, test.

Within this state-of-the-art facility, an extraordinary group of scientists are engaged in efforts to translate research ideas into products aimed at controlling emerging infectious diseases and defending our society against bioterrorism. The GNL has been designed to serve as a national resource, and will complement and enhance UTMB’s decades of prominence in biomedical research - as well as provide a world renowned resource for training researchers in infectious diseases.

As one of two National Biocontainment Laboratories constructed with funding awarded in October 2003 by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health (NIAID/NIH), the GNL provides much needed research space and specialized research capabilities to develop therapies, vaccines, and diagnostic tests for naturally occurring emerging diseases such as SARS, West Nile encephalitis and avian influenza – as well as for microbes that might be employed by terrorists. Products likely to emerge from research and investigations within the GNL include novel diagnostic assays, improved therapeutics and treatment models, and preventative measures such as vaccines.

Interesting content includes the Video Tour and Timeline (which proves that they are no newcomer to the field), as well as an assortment of links relating to bioterrorism, infectious disease, and other public health issues.

Google has a number of applications, such as Google Docs, that are being put to creative and innovative uses.  In the field of public health, for instance, Google Flu Trends uses aggregated search data, combined with IP addresses, to track flu outbreaks.

They claim that there is a strong correlation between searching and disease outbreak (although they do recognize that not everyone who searches for “flu symptoms” might be sick - you might, for example, just be writing a paper for your ESM class), and that their data can indicate an outbreak as soon as two weeks before the CDC or another indicator system. (The CDC relies largely on doctor reports that are aggregated by the CDC and state health departments.) Another benefit is the near-instant reporting of results, allowing researchers to see what is happening right now.

A Flash-based map of the U.S. allows you to view flu trends for this year, broken down by state. As a researcher, you can download their raw data  in a CSV-format. The FAQ for the Google Flu Trends answers questions about flu statistics in general and Google Trends in particular, including privacy questions related to this service.

I discovered this organization thanks to a  pointer from the HSDL to their October 2008 report entitled, “Germs Go Global: Why Emerging Infectious Diseases Are a Threat to America.” Having just participated in a discussion group on the ethics and biology of childhood immunizations,* this caught my eye.

“From anthrax to asthma, from chemical terrorism to cancer, America is facing a crisis of epidemics.

As a nation, we are stuck in a “disease du jour” mentality, which means we lose sight of the bigger picture: building a public health defense that is strong enough to cover us from all points of attack – whether the threats are from a bioterrorist or Mother Nature.

By focusing on PREVENTION, PROTECTION, and COMMUNITIES, TFAH is leading the fight to make disease prevention a national priority, from Capitol Hill to Main Street. We know what works. Now we need to build the resolve to get it done.”

Turns out, the non-profit, non-partisan Trust for America’s Health publishes a lot of reports and statistics that would be of interest to those interested in public health and emergency preparedness. Their reports cover topics as diverse as the obesity crisis in America (”F as in Fat“) and the safety of America’s food supply (”Fixing Food Safety“). But the real strength of this site is the statistics. I found out that the Commonwealth of Virginia scored a perfect “10″ on the “Ready or Not 2007 Emergency Preparedness Indicators”, and the state data can be viewed either by state or by topic (Pandemic Flu, Infectious Diseases, Bioterrorism and Public Health Preparedness among others).

The Advocacy and Initiatives pages give a good view of who the Trust is, and what they are working on. Finally, the Resource Library brings together a collection of resources, both those published by the Trust and outside resources related to the different focus topics.

*Personal opinion warning - I came away from the discussion with the realization that certain populations in America are now at high-risk for some very scary diseases due to their stand on this issue and increased globalization, and we have the luxury of being ignorant of the ravages of diseases like polio because they have essentially been eradicated - end personal opinion.

From Stanford University and the University of California - Riverside, an intriguing example of “distributed computing” being used to provide evidence of earthquakes around the globe. Download the free software and become part of the Quake Catcher Network.

The Quake-Catcher Network is a collaborative initiative for developing the world’s largest, low-cost strong-motion seismic network by utilizing sensors in and attached to internet-connected computers.

With your help, the Quake-Catcher Network can provide better understanding of earthquakes, give early warning to schools, emergency response systems, and others. The Quake-Catcher Network also provides educational software designed to help teach about earthquakes and earthquake hazards.

The Quake Catcher Network uses the built-in movement sensor (accelerometers) in many laptops to ‘read’ seismic events. By combining the results of many sensors, the overall size and time of the quake event can be read. (An associated initiative provides USB accelerometers for desktop computers.) The researchers are also interested in using this initiative to foster learning in the K-12 environment, and have developed a version of the software and a set of lesson plans specifically for school settings.

Occasionally, I receive ’slips’ for books published in the field of ESM. This ’slip’ pointed to a book published by the World Bank, and freely available on their website.

Amin, Samia and Markus Goldenstein, ed. Data against Natural Disasters: Establishing Effective Systems for Relief, Recovery, and Reconstruction. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 2008.

This volume, available online through the World Bank, has a two-fold purpose. In Part One, the case is made for the need to manage data before, during, and after a disaster. Part Two gives six Case Studies from around the world which illustrate cases in which data systems were used in an actual disaster.  (Guatemala, Haiti, Indonesia, Mozambique, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are all highlighted; each instance occurred between 2004 and 2007.) With each study, the authors have highlighted some lessons learned, pointing the way forward in future disaster situations and supporting  the arguments made in Part One. Packed with figures and tables, the ‘on-the-ground’ nature of the case studies makes the case for data very powerfully.

Be forewarned: this is a large .pdf file (1.96MB) crammed with informative and interesting insights. Be ready to spend time reading this!

During our time living in southern California, I managed to sleep through the only earthquake that occurred during our 18 months there (it was VERY minor, and I had a baby that wasn’t yet sleeping through the night). But the threat of a serious earthquake in that part of the country is very real.

In recognition of that fact, a consortium of government and private interests (USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center at USC, NSF, Home Depot and State Farm, among others) have collaborated to prepare the largest earthquake drill ever. At 10:00am on November 13, 2008, everyone registered will “drop, cover and hold on.” 4.6 million people are registered as of today.

In addition to encouraging the public to think through their emergency preparedness and plans before the event, there will be a “Get Ready  Rally” on November 14, to assess the event and promote planning. (This being California, there will also be live entertainment.) What fascinates me about this event is the multiple parties involved. The Art Center College of Design provided design services for many of the flyers and websites, as well as creating an Earthquake Recovery Game that will be an integral part of the exercise; everyone from scouting groups to neighborhood associations to government entities are registering and helping to register people; and the after-event is open to all. If the planners can, in fact, co-ordinate this diverse group of interests, they will have provided a great benefit.

As we bid farewell to the 2008 hurricane season, I though I’d show one last hurricane website. The Historical Hurricane Tracks site, from NOAA, gives a valuable picture of hurricane activity over time.

The Historical Hurricane Tracks tool is an interactive mapping application that allows you to easily search and display Atlantic Basin and Eastern North Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data. Check out the Query Storm Tracks feature. Easily search for tropical cyclone tracks from Atlantic and Pacific data by entering a ZIP Code, latitude and longitude coordinates, city or state, or geographic region and then view the selected tracks on a map.

This page also links to reports on the deadliest and costliest hurricanes, calculated using data from 1851-2007. The Coastal Population Tool allows the user to search coastal population data compared to hurricane strikes by coastal county, from Maine to Texas. Tropical Cyclone Reports, written by National Hurricane Center specialists, as well as reports for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins, are linked on this site. But perhaps the most interesting tool is the Query Expediter Tool, which allows to user to build a custom, embeddable URL to link users directly to online maps marked with specific storm tracks. Here, for example, is the link to the map of Hurricane Gustav’s track: http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html?QE=NAME&PACBASIN=655,654,653, and here is the map (wierdly distorted by Wordpress, not NOAA):