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From failure to transformation, ‘Four Futures’ sums up today’s (harsh) reality

Posted by Sue Robinson on February 18, 2009 in Uncategorized

The  current issue of The Nonprofit Quarterly, a magazine written for and to the nonprofit sector, puts forth a question that is at the heart of today’s funding crisis. Author Paul Light wrote: “When boiled down to its fundamentals, the question is whether nonprofits are ‘owned’ by their institutional funders (governmenal and philanthropic) or whether a broader community of stakeholders should make the choice about the future nonprofits pursue.” He argues that there is great struggle on the horizon, a struggle for the very soul of the sector. He sees the sector as  belonging to citizens. Yet, there is also pressure from the people with the resources that support the sector. He seems to project a scenario where big, brand name nonprofits seek or gain “greater market share through muscular fundraising machinery and will carve up territory that will … undermine the self-direction and survival of smaller, community-based entities.”

He then goes on to consider four different futures for nonprofits. The first, which we’ve discussed in class, is the “Rescue Fantasy” — that Americans are generous and that they’ll dig deep. Not likely, he wrote. No. 2. is the “Withering Winterland.” In this scenario all nonprofits cut back, all suffer. With hiring freezes, pay freezes, layoffs and deferred organizational maintenance, nonprofits will starve themselves. The No. 3 scenario is “An Arbitrary Winnowing.” This, he writes, is the most likely course. The big will get bigger, the small will hang on–still living hand to mouth as they did before the downturn–and the middle class of nonprofits will be virtually eliminated. (My project nonprofit falls in the “small” scale category.)

The last scenario–but one that will only occur if nonprofits make it so–is “Transformation.” This time is an opportunity for nonprofits to reinvent themselves through creativity, flexibility, collaborations, dialogue on philanthropy, research, broad-based use of technology, bringing young people into leadership, and social entrepreneurship. Since my project models most of the tactics he recommends, I read this article with acute interest.

Trend No. 4: Source: Light, Paul. “Four Futures.” Nonprofit Quarterly. first quarter, 2009. Accessed online Feb. 13, 2009. http://www.nonprofituarterly.org/content/view/806/1/